The world could experience extreme weather conditions in 2026 and 2027 as scientists warn that the upcoming El Niño may become one of the strongest ever recorded. Experts say the climate phenomenon could push global temperatures to record highs and have a major impact on water supplies, agriculture and weather patterns across the world.
According to estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean could rise by as much as 3°C (5.4°F) above normal by December 2026 due to El Niño. Some projections even suggest temperatures could climb by 4°C (7.2°F) above average.
Could It Break Previous Records?
If these forecasts prove accurate, the upcoming El Niño could be stronger than the record-setting events of 1997-98 and 2015-16. During those episodes, temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region rose about 2.3°C (4.1°F) above average.
Meteorologist and climate writer Ben Noll said that many forecast models are now projecting warming above 3°C, while some are predicting more than 4°C. According to him, these projections point towards a potentially record-breaking El Niño event.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal, while trade winds weaken.
These changes affect weather systems worldwide, influencing temperatures, rainfall patterns, droughts and floods in different regions.
Global Concerns Growing
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing before September and a 90% chance before November.
The organisation says the event could significantly influence global weather conditions and add further pressure to an already warming climate.
UN Chief Issues Warning
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that El Niño is likely to arrive in the coming months with a very high level of certainty. He urged countries to treat it as a serious climate warning.
Guterres said the phenomenon could add more heat to a planet that is already experiencing record temperatures. He cautioned that the effects of El Niño could spread rapidly across regions and countries, making preparedness and early action essential.
First published on: Jun 08, 2026 08:59 PM IST
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