Oil prices settled over 1 per cent higher on Monday as the market weighed the prospect of renewed US-Iran negotiations against escalating supply risks following escalations in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures gained $1.12 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $89.22 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude soared by 74 cents or 0.9 per cent to $83.23 a barrel.
The Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend, with the US conducting a ninth straight night of attacks against Iran, while American allies Kuwait and Bahrain reported more Iranian strikes.
Traders weighed hopes of renewed US-Iran negotiations against Yemen’s Houthis’ imposition of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The group said the “maritime embargo” was retaliation for what it described as a Saudi siege of Yemen.
This development brings the US-Iran war officially to the southern entrance of the Red Sea and threatens an export route used by Saudi Arabia to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of global oil supplies flowed through the waterway.
Iran had previously instructed the Houthis to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US continued attacking Iranian power infrastructure. A full closure could disrupt oil shipments equivalent to about 7 per cent of global supply.
Meanwhile, Iran has received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, and both Iran and the US have left open the possibility of renewed negotiations.
Market analysts noted that if a ceasefire does not materialise and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial.
Kpler analysts said in a note that there is also the possibility that a record amount of crude oil on water, estimated at around 1.35 billion barrels, could limit the next leg of oil price increases.
A drone struck a tanker loading crude oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Black Sea export terminal on Monday, forcing the suspension of exports for the second time in less than 24 hours.
The CPC system accounts for roughly 1 per cent of global oil supply, carrying crude primarily from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak fields, with additional volumes from Russian producers in the Caspian region.