For months, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition generated buzz with a tantalising prospect for the opposition: a unified front capable of unseating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
The ADC coalition also saw a surge in its membership following the defections of two political heavyweights, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
However, just as the blueprint for an opposition mega-coalition was being drawn up, the party experienced a crack following the dramatic exits of both Peter Obi and Kwankwaso, sending shockwaves through the political landscape.
As the duo pivots toward a new vehicle, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a critical question hangs over the nation: Is the opposition alliance already on life support, or just engaged in a mere charade aimed at handing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) victory on a platter?
Ego Of 2023 Repeating Itself?
In 2023, the fragmentation of votes among the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) handed the keys of Aso Rock to President Bola Tinubu.
The issue of zoning the presidential ticket to the South, which is the root cause of the current crisis in the PDP, is repeating itself in the ADC as the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, has shunned zoning and is ready to slug it out with the ex-Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, at the party’s primary election.
Meanwhile, NDC has moved to solve the ultimate issue of zoning, which Peter Obi and Kwankwanso had feared while in ADC.
Kwankwaso backed the zoning formula and signalled his readiness to serve as Peter Obi’s running mate, a move that can pave the way for his presidential ambition.
Tinubu Factor And Divided Opposition
In an exclusive interview with PrimeTimes Nigeria, Public affairs analyst cum lecturer at the Nigerian Institute of Journalism (NIJ), Jide Johnson, said the opposition parties are not showing any sign of stability.
He said, “In Nigeria, there are no opposition parties, and there are no ruling parties. You just have opportunists using political party platforms to try to seek and control the levers of government. Because the political parties in Nigeria are not controlled by any ideology. The political parties in Nigeria share similar attributes, similar principles when it comes to governance. You ask this question, the major actors that were in the PDP, 16-year administration, are also in the APC, 11th year administration.
“So, for a quarter of a century, the actors and players in the political landscape in Nigeria, whether at the state or particularly at the federal level, are doing the same. And so, when you talk about opposition, you are talking about Kwankwaso, you are talking about Atiku Abubakar, with the exception of Peter Obi, every one of them in the opposition have been either in PDP or APC in the past. And so, what’s the difference? So, there’s no difference, as far as I’m concerned, between the political parties we have in Nigeria as presently constituted. What we have is a special purpose vehicle that people are deploying to confuse Nigeria in order for them to have a sense of deliver so far.”
Asked if the proposed alliance between Peter Obi and Kwankwaso further splits or unites the opposition, Jide said, “Well, we don’t, until the parties are through with their primaries, and once the parties are through with their primaries, then you begin to see. Nobody will likely talk about the outcome of the election until we get to November or December 2026. That’s when you see the clearest indication whether the breaking of the opposition into different splinter groups will have an effect on the opposition’s ability to rally around and from the APC, or whether the APC will be able to push its house in order to manage the internal crisis that will likely arise out of the way the party has conducted its primaries thus far.
“And so, for us to speculate about the outcome of the January 2027 presidential election may be too far-fetched. Until the parties come, conduct their primaries, and we see how they are able to manage their internal crisis post-primary, will determine the likely outcome. And you don’t know whether, after the candidacy by the merger, you will recall that in 1999, there was an understanding, a merger between the AP and the APP to present a candidate against the PDP. But the present arrangement tends to favour the incumbent when the opposition is splintered across different interest groups. It favours the incumbent, which is the APC, and that’s what people are thinking. But you can’t actually feel for a fact what will likely be the outcome in January, until we get to that period I’ve spoken about.”
Speaking on fears of a possible implosion within the APC, especially given the results announced so far, Jide Johnson said, “There will always be internal post-primary crisis, depending on how it is managed. How it is managed will go a long way in preventing the implosion which you talk about. And when you talk about the power of equivalency, I think that the APC has a lot of opportunity to dispense. I think those who are dissatisfied with the outcome might likely be compensated, and they might think that their stock is better with the APC than with an uncertain opposition.
“For me, the 2026 Electoral Act has boxed everybody into a corner. In the past, you saw those who lost out in the primaries likely go to another political party. But now, we don’t have that option. Unfortunately, the National Assembly members, they play the role of a tortoise and the same sword that they thought that would be used against them, their opponents in their respective constituencies, is the same sword that has been used against them presently. And so the same provisions they need for the 2026 Electoral Act, the same provisions that have been used to collude in their political ambitions. And so we wait and see the outcome. But to a certain degree, it is APC’s advantage now because the opposition is fractured.”