Political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, has expressed doubts over former President Goodluck Jonathan being a viable option for the northern political bloc ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking in an interview with Daily Post on Wednesday, Ojo asserted that regional politics, concerns about power rotation, and elite distrust would affect Jonathan’s chances.
Recall that the Tanimu Turaki-led Interim National Working Committee of the PDP recently announced Jonathan as its sole presidential candidate for the 2027 elections after a screening process.
A member of the committee, former Niger State governor, Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, had said Jonathan was granted a waiver due to his status as a former president.
Analysing the growing debate around Jonathan’s possible return, Ojo said the North would interpret Jonathan’s possible comeback differently depending on social and political class.
He explained that while ordinary Nigerians in the North may feel nostalgic about Jonathan’s tenure, elites would likely oppose his return.
Ojo said, “For the common man in the North who only thinks about survival, many will tell you they prefer Jonathan’s time over the present administration because there was no hunger then.
“But the major challenge at that time was insecurity. Today, people are facing both hunger and insecurity. Can Jonathan handle and end the current full-blown insecurity if he returns?”
He added that the preference changes if a Northern candidate is available on the ballot.
“If there is a Northern candidate, the average Northerner will not support Jonathan coming back,” he said.
Ojo also said Northern political elites would resist Jonathan’s return due to fears of political retaliation linked to the 2015 election.
“The elites will not want Jonathan to come back because they will see it as a payback period. They believe he may remember how a coalition was formed against him and he was removed from office,” he explained.
The analyst further argued that some Northern stakeholders may attempt to draw Jonathan into the 2027 race for strategic reasons, especially within the PDP.
“If Jonathan comes in on the PDP platform, it may complicate Tinubu’s path and prevent a one-party situation,” he said.
He added that if multiple strong candidates emerge, including Peter Obi, Jonathan and others, it could split votes in a way that benefits different regional blocs.
On the issue of power rotation, Ojo said the principle is political rather than constitutional.
“Rotation is not written in the constitution. It is an arrangement for unity,” he said.
“Since 1999, the South has produced presidents for about 18 years, while the North has had about 10 years.”
He listed former presidents, Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu as Southern leaders, while Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Muhammadu Buhari represented the North.
Ojo argued that this imbalance influences current political debates on fairness and zoning, especially ahead of 2027.
He concluded that while Jonathan’s name continues to generate national attention, his chances of acceptance in Northern political circles remain limited.
“In reality, Jonathan is not a strong option for the Northern political bloc going into 2027,” he said.
He concluded by saying that while Jonathan’s image has improved significantly, he personally believes the former president should not return to contest for the presidency again, though he added that the law has the final say.
This comes as a suit before a Federal High Court in Abuja seeks to determine whether former President Goodluck Jonathan is eligible to contest the 2027 election, following arguments that his succession in 2010 and subsequent 2011 victory amount to two constitutional terms. The court has fixed May 26 for judgment.