The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from both OPEC and OPEC+, in a dramatic move that threatens to destabilise the global oil market and weaken the influence of the Saudi Arabia-led bloc.
The decision, disclosed on Tuesday, marks a significant shift in the global energy landscape, coming at a time of heightened geopolitical tension driven by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The war has already triggered a historic energy shock, disrupting supply chains and unsettling the global economy.
As one of OPEC’s longstanding members, the UAE’s exit is expected to create disarray within the group, which has traditionally projected unity despite internal disagreements over production quotas and geopolitical strategy. Analysts warn the development could undermine the bloc’s ability to coordinate output and stabilise oil prices.
The situation is further compounded by growing threats to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Iranian threats and attacks on vessels have already disrupted exports from Gulf producers.
The move is also seen as a strategic win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised OPEC for inflating global oil prices. Trump has previously linked U.S. military protection of Gulf nations to oil pricing, accusing the group of exploiting American support.
Tensions within the Gulf region appear to have contributed to the UAE’s decision. The country recently criticised fellow Arab states for what it described as inadequate political and military support in response to Iranian attacks.
Speaking at the Gulf Influencers Forum, diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash expressed disappointment with the response of both the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League.
“The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, their position has been the weakest historically,” Gargash said, noting he had expected more from regional allies.
The UAE’s departure signals a potential realignment in global energy politics, with far-reaching implications for oil supply, pricing, and geopolitical alliances.