Oil prices rose minimally on Friday, as traders held on to hopes for a successful outcome from attempts to secure peace between the United States and Iran.
Brent futures were up 14 cents or 0.19 per cent to $71.94 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grew by 9 cents or 0.13 per cent to $68.78 a barrel.
Trading was light as US markets were closed ahead of the country’s Independence Day holiday on Saturday. On Thursday, the two oil benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February.
Analysts noted that investor hopes for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are being buoyed by peace talks between the US and Iran. The dealmaking process remains fragile but continues for now, as the question of the Strait of Hormuz tolls and administration remains contentious.
Citi Bank noted that there are expectations that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) will hold, not because trust has suddenly emerged, but because the incentives to break are poor for both sides.
China’s crude buying remains weak; physical prices have crumbled due to the surge of prompt supply from the Middle East, while inventories have drawn far less than expected.
Some shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, as called for under the initial US-Iranian deal, but uncertainty is high after the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.
With the prospect of shipping more oil, Gulf producers are working to increase output. Kuwait’s oil production rose sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, from 580,000barrels per day in May while at least five supertankers carrying a total of 10 million barrels of Saudi oil have left the strait and Saudi Aramco has switched to spot pricing from longer-term contracts to speed sales in Asia.
According to Reuters’ monthly survey, the 11 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) produced 19.43 million barrels per day in June, up 3.3 million barrels per day from May, when output plunged to the lowest level recorded by the survey since at least 2000.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq also boosted output, while Nigeria and Libya posted smaller increases despite avoiding the worst of the Gulf disruptions.