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By Augustine Idiagbon
AS President Bola Tinubu marks three years in office, the assessments of his administration continue to generate vigorous debate among academics, legal scholars and policy analysts.
While some observers acknowledge the boldness of the administration’s economic reforms and political dexterity, others argue that governance has suffered from excessive political calculations, leaving many Nigerians grappling with insecurity, economic hardship and declining confidence in democratic institutions.
Two scholars, Prof. Chris Abakare of the Department of Philosophy, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, and legal practitioner and public affairs analyst, Jide Ologun, offered contrasting yet complementary assessments of the administration’s performance, agreeing that the ultimate measure of governance lies in the welfare and security of the people.
Politics versus Governance
For Abakare, the defining feature of the Tinubu administration’s first three years has been an overwhelming focus on politics at the expense of governance.
According to him, the administration appeared to begin preparing for the 2027 elections almost immediately after assuming office in May 2023, diverting attention from urgent national challenges.
“The government of Tinubu has been politicking, politicking and politicking. That has affected governance. In terms of security and the well-being of the people, there is little to write home about,” he said.
The philosopher argued that the consequences of this approach are evident in worsening insecurity across several parts of the country, where armed groups and other non-state actors continue to challenge the authority of the state.
Although federal allocations to states and local governments have increased significantly since the removal of fuel subsidy, Abakare maintained that security outcomes have not improved proportionately.
He insisted that governors and local government authorities must also be held accountable for security challenges in their domains rather than placing all rthe esponsibility on the Federal Government.
Drawing from political philosophy, Abakare warned that some developments in Nigeria increasingly resemble conditions associated with fragile states, where government authority weakens and non-state actors exercise influence over communities and territories.
“We are not yet a failed state, but some of the signs associated with fragile states are becoming visible,” he cautioned.
The Economics of Reform
Ologun, however, viewed the administration through a different lens, acknowledging that President Tinubu took difficult but necessary economic decisions shortly after assuming office.
He identified the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange windows as major reforms that addressed longstanding structural distortions in the economy.
According to him, those policies improved government revenues and earned praise from international financial institutions, but have not yet translated into improved living conditions for millipns of Nigerians.
“When President Tinubu came into office, one of the first major decisions he took was the removal of fuel subsidy. It was a bold step because subsidy had become a source of economic distortions and exploitation,” he said.
Despite these reforms, Ologun noted that rising inflation, escalating transportation costs, food prices and declining purchasing power have left many citizens struggling to make ends meet.
He argued that the savings generated from subsidy removal should have been channelled more aggressively into productive sectors capable of generating jobs, stimulating industrial growth and cushioning the impact of economic adjustment.
The lawyer suggested that strategic investments in infrastructure, including additional refining capacity, could have helped strengthen Nigeria’s energy security and reduce vulnerability to fluctuations in the global oil market.
While commending the establishment of the Dangote Refinery as a major milestone for domestic refining, he maintained that government should have pursued complementary investments to maximise the benefits.
Democracy Under Pressure
Beyond economics and security, both scholars expressed concerns about the state of Nigeria’s democracy.
Abakare argued that opposition politics has come under increasing pressure, warning that the country risks drifting toward a one-party political structure if current trends continue.
According to him, opposition parties have gradually been weakened, reducing the vibrancy of the multiparty democratic system envisaged by the Constitution.
“What we have now is that the opposition is gradually being taken out of the public space and sent into oblivion. We are in danger of moving toward a one-party state,” he said.
He also raised concerns about declining public confidence in the judiciary and the legislature, alleging that the constitutional principle of separation of powers is becoming increasingly blurred.
According to him, many Nigerians now perceive both institutions as extensions of the executive arm of government.
“The popular saying that the judiciary is the last hope of the common man is being eroded daily,” he said.
Ologun, however, offered a more nuanced interpretation of the evolving political landscape.
While acknowledging President Tinubu’s remarkable political skill and ability to consolidate influence across the political spectrum, he argued that the weakness of opposition parties cannot be attributed solely to the ruling party.
He noted that many opposition parties have been plagued by internal crises, leadership disputes and ideological inconsistency.
“Politicians often move to where they believe their political future can be sustained. In many cases, they gravitate towards centres of power and influence,” he observed.
The lawyer maintained that Nigeria’s constitutional framework clearly defines the functions of the executive, legislature and judiciary, adding that courts merely adjudicate disputes brought before them.
Lessons from Established Democracies
In assessing the quality of Nigeria’s democracy, both analysts looked beyond the country’s borders for lessons.
Abakare cited Switzerland as an example of a democratic system built on consultation, consensus and broad citizen participation.
According to him, major decisions in Switzerland require agreement across different levels of government, ensuring that public policies reflect the collective will of the people.
Ologun also referenced Norway’s management of petroleum revenues through one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, arguing that Nigeria has yet to demonstrate similar long-term stewardship of its vast natural resources.
For him, democracy should not be measured solely by periodic elections but by its capacity to improve lives, promote accountability and create opportunities for citizens.
“An ideal democracy should be beneficial to the people. It should be driven by accountability, empathy and a willingness by leaders to share in the sacrifices demanded of citizens,” he said.
The Constitutional Test
At the heart of Ologun’s assessment is the belief that government performance should ultimately be judged against the provisions of the Constitution.
He cited Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution, which declares that the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government.
According to him, no matter how sophisticated economic reforms may appear, their success must be measured by whether they improve the lives of citizens.
“When citizens continue to experience insecurity, poverty and hardship, government must critically examine whether its policies are achieving their intended objectives,” he said.
He also referenced Section 16 of the Constitution, which seeks equitable distribution of resources and opportunities, expressing concern about widening inequality and the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few.
Balancing Political Success and Public Expectations
Interestingly, both experts acknowledged President Tinubu’s political accomplishments.
Abakare described him as perhaps the most politically connected president in Nigeria’s modern democratic history, enjoying influence across multiple centres of power.
Similarly, Ologun characterised him as a master strategist whose political achievements since the 2023 elections are undeniable.
Yet both scholars agreed that political success alone cannot define a presidency.
For them, history will judge the administration not by electoral victories, coalition-building or political manoeuvring, but by its ability to improve the welfare of Nigerians.
“Winning elections and consolidating political support are not what posterity ultimately remembers,” Ologun said. “What endures is the impact a leader makes on the lives of the people.”
As the Tinubu administration enters its fourth year, the central question remains whether the bold economic reforms and extensive political consolidation achieved so far can be converted into tangible improvements in security, prosperity and public confidence.
For millions of Nigerians confronting economic hardship and insecurity, that answer may ultimately determine how history records the first term of the Tinubu presidency. (Realnews)
F.O
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