Foreign
…as Hezbollah’s standing collapses
Roughly two-thirds in Syria and a clear majority in Lebanon call Hezbollah’s role harmful; most Syrians back a security arrangement with Israel, and pluralities in each country now expect eventual peace
PUBLIC opinion across two of Israel’s northern neighbors is undergoing a measurable recalibration, according to a pair of new surveys — one in Syria and one in Lebanon — released today by the Council for a Secure America (CSA).
In both nations, clear majorities now regard Hezbollah’s role as harmful to their own security, large shares consider eventual peace with Israel likely, and the post-war governments in Damascus and Beirut command broad approval ratings.
Fielded in three waves since October by respected polling house YouGov, the surveys reveal that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia long treated as a fixture, is now seen by ordinary Syrians and Lebanese alike as a liability rather than an asset.
The Syria survey results can be viewed here.
The Lebanon survey results can be viewed here.
Syria: Strong Approval for Al-Sharaa, Deep Hostility to Hezbollah, and Openness to Israel
President Ahmed Al-Sharaa enjoys robust support roughly 18 months into Syria’s post-Assad transition. Sixty-four percent of Syrians rate his performance positively and just 14% negatively — a net rating of +50 that has held near the top of its range since the transition began, after peaking at 69% approval in January.
Syrian hostility toward Hezbollah, whose forces fought for years to prop up the Assad regime, is emphatic: Sixty-eight percent (68%) describe the group’s involvement in Syria as negative — 52% “very negative” — versus only 6% who view it positively, a balance that has scarcely moved across all three waves.
That posture coincides with notable openness toward Israel. A 57% majority believe peace between the two countries is likely in the future, versus 16% who think it unlikely. A 53% majority would support the new Syrian government’s signing a security arrangement with Israel aimed at ensuring Syria’s safety and prosperity, with only 11% opposed. And if the Palestinian issue were resolved on a long-term basis, 46% would support normalizing diplomatic or economic relations with Israel — more than double the 19% who would oppose it.
Syrian enthusiasm, however, has cooled since the winter. Support for a security arrangement with Israel has eased from 64% in January to 53% in June, and the share viewing the U.S. role in Syria’s political and economic affairs positively has fallen from 65% to 51% over the same period, though it still outweighs the 22% who view it negatively. Both declines are concentrated among Syrians under 45: within that cohort, positive views of the U.S. role dropped from 65% in January to 44% in June, while Syrians 45 and older moved far less, from 66% to 58%.
“Roughly eighteen months after the fall of the Assad regime, Syrians have rendered a clear verdict on the militia that helped keep that regime in power,” said Jennifer Sutton, Executive Director of the Council for a Secure America. “More than two-thirds now call Hezbollah’s involvement in their country harmful, a majority would back a formal security arrangement with Israel, and most expect peace between the two nations in the years ahead. A Syrian public saying such things on the record would have been unthinkable a few years ago.”
Ms. Sutton noted that the recent softening, especially among younger Syrians, bears watching. “There has been some cooling since January, and it is real,” she said. “But openness to Israel and to an American role remains the majority position in Syria today. The trajectory of the past year is the story that matters.”
Lebanon: Opposition to Normalization with Israel Collapses
In Lebanon, the defining movement is the erosion of opposition to engagement with Israel. Asked how they would view normalization of diplomatic or economic relations with Israel following a long-term resolution to the Palestinian issue, just 19% of Lebanese now express opposition — down sharply from 31% in January — while 32% voice support. For the first time in CSA’s tracking, support for normalization outweighs opposition.
The survey documents a broad recalibration of Lebanese attitudes toward Israel, Hezbollah, and the country’s own trajectory:
- Twenty-eight percent (28%) believe Lebanon should repeal its laws criminalizing dealings with Israel; only 32% would keep them (40% didn’t answer);
- A 40% plurality believe normalization would help the Lebanese economy — nearly double the 22% who believe it would cause harm;
- 59% say Hezbollah’s military presence has a negative impact on Lebanon’s security, against just 11% who view it as positive;
- 58% support President Joseph Aoun’s efforts to strengthen the Lebanese Army and negotiate Hezbollah’s disarmament so that all armed forces operate under government authority; and
- A 41% plurality now consider eventual peace between Israel and Lebanon likely, versus 27% who think it unlikely.
The softening of opposition has been driven in part by Lebanon’s Muslim population. Since January, Muslim opposition to normalization has fallen from 31% to 23%, while Muslim support has risen from 19% to 28%. Christian support climbed from 37% to 43% over the same period.
“For years the conventional wisdom held that Lebanese society was immovably opposed to any relationship with Israel. This data demolishes that assumption,” Ms. Sutton said. “Opposition to normalization has been cut nearly in half since January, a clear plurality now wants the laws criminalizing contact with Israel off the books, and a majority sees Hezbollah’s arsenal as a threat to Lebanon’s own security. That is not a marginal shift; it is a public laying the groundwork for a different future.”
As in Syria, Lebanon’s head of state retains a plurality’s approval even as it eases. President Aoun is rated positively by 46% of Lebanese in June, down from a 57% peak in January, with the decline concentrated among younger Lebanese — a generational pattern that mirrors the one seen in Syria.
“What we are watching is the logic of the Abraham Accords reaching the eastern Mediterranean,” Ms. Sutton said. “In Damascus and in Beirut alike, citizens are concluding that integration, stability, and prosperity serve them better than perpetual confrontation — and that the militias standing in the way are a cost they no longer wish to bear. The appetite for a different regional order is there, in two countries at once.”
Methodology: The findings are drawn from two parallel surveys conducted in Arabic by YouGov via online panel. The Syrian survey sampled nationally representative groups of Syrian adults aged 18 and older — 257 respondents (October 14–21, 2025), 260 (January 8–15, 2026), and 252 (May 28–June 5, 2026). The Lebanese survey sampled Lebanese adults aged 18 and older — 253 respondents (October 14–20, 2025), 252 (January 8–14, 2026), and 260 (May 26–June 1, 2026). Socio-demographic quotas based on World Bank age and gender data were applied in both. The margin of sampling error is ±5.0% at the 95% confidence level for each survey.
A.I
June 17, 2026
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