The Middle East is once again on edge. On June 8, Iran fired missiles at northern Israel. This was the first direct attack between the two countries since a ceasefire began in April. Shortly after, news came in that a US military helicopter crashed into an Iranian drone near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow but very important sea route through which a huge share of the world’s oil and gas passes. Tension shot up immediately. The United States hit back with strikes on Iran, and Iran replied by firing missiles at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
All of this is happening during what experts call a “no war, no peace” period. This simply means there is no full-blown war, but clashes and attacks keep happening on and off. The bigger picture here is clear and worrying. Iran is not getting scared by pressure, and it is also not rushing to sign any agreement. Instead, Iran’s new leadership has become bolder. They are now willing to take more risks and use military force to challenge their rivals.
To understand why this matters, we have to look at how Iran used to behave. For many years, Iran followed a policy known as “strategic patience.” In plain words, this means Iran would not react instantly to provocation. It would wait quietly for the right moment to respond. Iran believed it could not win a direct war against stronger countries like Israel and the United States, who have far more advanced weapons. So instead of fighting directly, Iran built a network of friendly armed groups near its enemies’ borders. These groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, and the Houthis against Saudi Arabia, are not part of any country’s official army. They are independent fighters supported by Iran. This was called “forward defence,” meaning Iran tried to keep threats far away from its own land by creating trouble elsewhere.
This clever strategy worked for a long time. Iran’s leaders believed time was on their side. As their allied groups slowly grew stronger and gained influence inside countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, Iran’s power in the region quietly increased. Iran did not want a long, costly war that could destroy everything it had built over decades.
But then came October 7, 2023. Hamas launched a shocking and dramatic attack on Israel. Reports suggest Iran itself was caught by surprise. Hamas reportedly hoped this big attack would force Iran and its allies to finally join the fight fully and drop their patient approach. But that did not happen. Despite years of supporting Hamas, Iran mostly stayed on the sidelines while Israel launched a massive military operation in Gaza. Hezbollah in Lebanon carried out only small, limited attacks, carefully avoiding anything that might start a full war.
When Iran finally tried to change its strategy, things went badly. In April and October 2024, Iran directly attacked Israel for the very first time in its history. Earlier, such a move would have been unthinkable. But by then, Iran had already suffered many losses. Many observers, even those who do not support Iran’s government, asked why Tehran waited so long. Iran acted only after Israel bombed its consulate in Damascus and killed a senior Hamas leader inside Tehran itself.
Even then, Iran held back. It reportedly warned about its attacks in advance and used slow-moving drones, most of which were shot down before reaching their targets. Iran wanted to look strong and send a message, but without causing real damage or starting a bigger war. Sadly for Iran, this plan failed completely. It made Iran look weak. People felt Iran’s threats were big in words but small in action. This badly damaged Iran’s power to “deter” its enemies, meaning its ability to scare enemies into not attacking.
The same pattern repeated when the United States joined Israel’s campaign. Iran fired missiles at a major US base in Qatar, breaking another long-standing taboo by attacking from its own soil. But once again, Iran reportedly warned the US and Qatar beforehand, the base was emptied, and most missiles were intercepted. Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz also came to nothing. Israeli and American leaders concluded that Iran was too weak to hit back hard. They even believed they could attack Iran on a large scale, including targeting its top leaders, and still survive any revenge.
Then came the big turning point. After the Israeli and US attacks in February, Iran changed its whole approach. The United States, Israel, and the Gulf nations were stunned when Iran hit civilian areas and critical infrastructure, meaning essential systems like power, transport, and energy, across the region. Iran even moved to close the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone had judged Iran based on its old, cautious behaviour. But Iran broke free from those old habits, and it did so with growing confidence and effectiveness.
The April ceasefire reduced the fighting but did not stop it. Within two weeks, Iran attacked Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait. As peace talks dragged on without progress, the Trump administration became more willing to use force, calling its actions “defensive” and “preventive.” But every time the US struck, Iran hit back harder, targeting civilian sites. In one case, after the US disabled a tanker heading to Iran, Iran attacked Kuwait’s international airport. That strike reportedly killed one person, injured more than 60, and shut down Kuwait’s airspace.
Iran’s recent missile attacks on Israel are part of this same new strategy. They came in revenge for Israel bombing a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. These attacks were not just for show. Iran wanted to set new red lines, warning that any big Israeli strike north of Lebanon’s Litani River or in Beirut would invite retaliation. Iran also wanted to remind everyone that it leads the “Axis of Resistance,” the group of Iran-backed allies fighting against Israel and US influence.
There was a clear message for Lebanon too. The Lebanese government is currently holding direct peace talks with Israel, even though Israel still controls large parts of Lebanese land and over 1.2 million people have been forced from their homes. Iran wanted ordinary Lebanese people to believe that Iran and Hezbollah, not their own government, are their true protectors. The message was simple: talks alone cannot stop Israel, only military strength can.
So what does all this tell us? The Middle East will likely stay unstable for years to come. Yes, two years of war have weakened Iran’s regional influence. But its new leaders are determined and aggressive. Unlike the old guard, they are happy to take risks and make their enemies pay a price.
This is not a contradiction but a cold, practical choice. Iran has already faced its worst nightmare, a joint Israeli and American attack on its own soil, and that happened twice. Yet the government did not fall. Having survived that, Iran feels more confident than ever. It is now ready to escalate, apply pressure, and push back hard against anyone who threatens it. In Iran’s own view, this tougher new approach is finally giving it the results it always wanted.
(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany.)
First published on: Jun 12, 2026 03:40 PM IST
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