The first heatwave of the summer is set to scorch Europe over the coming week, sending temperatures toward monthly records in the UK, France and Spain.
A high-pressure pattern, which warms air as it compresses it toward the ground, is forecast to linger and push temperatures to as much as 11 deg C above normal, according to weather models and meteorologists. The unusual heat is set to intensify quickly over the UK’s holiday weekend, with daytime highs in London reaching 32 deg C on May 24, according to the UK Met Office.
“This could be quite a notable event when it comes to heat,” said meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth of the UK Met Office.
The official start to summer is still weeks away, but longer-term weather patterns across the world’s fastest-warming continent support frequent heat waves and extreme heat in the months ahead – especially as high temperatures start to sap moisture from soils across the northern half of Europe, meteorologists say.
“It can lock in that high pressure system, which further amplifies the heat, temperature rises and that further suppresses rainfall – and you get that positive feedback loop,” said meteorologist Amy Hodgson of Atmospheric G2,
French government forecaster Meteo-France expects climate change to bring heat waves both earlier and later in the summer season. Over the coming days, maximums will climb to 31 deg C in Paris and as much as 35 deg C in the south-west of the country, it said.
Spain is expected to see the most extreme heat, with highs of 38 deg C possible in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir regions, according to government forecaster AEMET.
The heat is forecast to bring a calmer and drier shift to a month that has seen erratic temperatures and periodic storms. The sunny, settled outlook means clearer skies, which is forecast to boost solar generation through next week and ease strain from increased cooling demand, according to analysis from BNEF.
Solar power in France surged to 20,074MW on May 21. Strong solar generation is expected to continue across north-west Europe next week, according to power modelling from MetDesk.
The calmer atmosphere offers a more mixed picture for wind generation, which is forecast to be low in France and Germany through the weekend. That could change next week with a shift to more northerly winds, according to analysis from MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis. BLOOMBERG