Analysts at Coronation Research have said the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026 as a result of the “energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, seasonal issues in regard to food prices and relative exchange rate stability.”
In a note sighted by Business Post on Friday, the research arm of the organisation further disclosed that the average price of goods and services for the month under review should rise by 2.35 per cent on a month-on-month basis versus 4.18 per cent in March 2026, reflecting continued food price firmness, offset by a cooling in the monthly inflation momentum as the March energy price shock partially unwinds.
It said the projected 2.35 per cent inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today. In March 2026, the rate soared by 15.38 per cent, triggered by the war in Iran waged by the United States.
Food inflation rate in March stood at 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis versus 25.22 per cent in the same month of last year, but on a month-on-month basis, it slowed to 4.17 per cent from the 4.69 per cent achieved in February 2026.
This was attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh), Cassava Flour sold loose, etc, according to the stats office.
In their report, Coronation Research expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the CPI basket.