Voters and political supporters across northern Nigeria have expressed mixed views over the likely voting pattern in the region ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The debate follows growing political permutations that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, may not be on the same political platform in the next presidential poll.
PrimeTimes Nigeria reports that there are also discussions around a possible alliance involving the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, and Kwankwaso, while Atiku is expected to pursue his presidential ambition separately with a running mate yet to be identified.
Although the 2027 election is still some distance away, political realignments have already begun to shape conversations across the country.
In the North, the possible separation of Atiku and Kwankwaso into different political camps may have significant implications for the opposition vote.
While some stakeholders believe Atiku’s wider northern network gives him an advantage, others argue that an Obi-Kwankwaso alliance could disrupt old voting patterns if backed by a strong coalition.
Kwankwaso’s Strength Limited To Kano – ADC Chieftain
Commenting on the emerging political calculations, an African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain, Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, said northern voters could be divided because of the various alliances and interests ahead of the election.
Wada argued that Kwankwaso’s strongest political base remains Kano State, unlike Atiku, whom he said enjoys wider support across several northern states.
“From my observation, Kwankwaso’s strength is in Kano. Even in the previous election, you could see how he only made it in Kano, while Atiku is all over,” he told Daily Post.
He noted that the involvement of Obi in the expected political arrangement could affect Kwankwaso’s chances in some parts of the North.
According to him, some northern voters still hold reservations about Obi because of perceptions from the 2023 presidential election campaign.
“The issue is that the North is not comfortable with Obi on the ballot because of the religious card he played the other time. That will also affect the strength of Kwankwaso in 2027,” Wada stated.
Wada further claimed that many voters in the North were dissatisfied with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and could prefer a northern candidate in the 2027 election.
He said the choice of Kwankwaso as a running mate in a possible alliance may not sit well with some of his supporters, who would have preferred him to contest as a presidential candidate.
“The North is unanimously united against the APC and will surely go for a northerner on the ballot. Kwankwaso is a running mate this time around, and that has discouraged many of his supporters,” he added.
His position reflects the view among some northern political observers that the region’s voting decision in 2027 may be influenced by regional identity, party strength, and dissatisfaction with the current administration.
Obi-Kwankwaso Alliance May Reshape Northern Votes – Obidient Coordinator
However, the Kano Obidient Coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, offered a different view, saying the northern vote may not follow the same pattern as it did in the 2023 election.
Muhammad said a possible Obi-Kwankwaso ticket could attract support across the North, especially if opposition forces unite behind the alliance.
“The northern vote will likely split, but not like that of the 2023, because Kwankwaso is running with Peter Obi as presidential candidate from the South,” he told journalists.
He explained that the eventual voting pattern would depend on the home-base strength of the candidates, their running mates, and the perception of voters regarding who has the best chance of defeating President Bola Tinubu.
“And the pattern will depend on three things: home-base strength, running mates, and whether voters consolidate around the candidate they see as most likely to beat Tinubu,” Muhammad noted.
Muhammad also pointed to a broader coalition being discussed among opposition politicians and parties ahead of the election.
According to him, unlike in 2023 when Kwankwaso contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party while Atiku ran under a different party, the 2027 election may present a stronger opposition alliance.
“2023 election, Kwankwaso contested as presidential candidate in NNPP, which is a different party from the party Atiku contested under and got lower votes, but this coming election (2027 election), Kwankwaso will run with Peter Obi together with a massive alliance from different parties such as LP, SDP, APGA, and even those departing from APC to NDC,” he said.
He argued that such a coalition could boost the chances of the Obi-Kwankwaso camp, particularly in states where both politicians already command support.
Muhammad claimed that some northern voters now view Atiku’s 2027 ambition as being driven more by personal interest than by a collective opposition strategy.
“Northerners now understand that Atiku is running for himself, not for Nigerians, because Obi and Kwankwaso asked him to join NDC so that they can merge together and beat Tinubu, and he denied,” he claimed.
The Kano Obidient Coordinator further predicted that a possible Obi-Kwankwaso alliance could perform strongly in Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, and other states in the North-West.
He added that Obi’s influence could also improve the alliance’s chances in parts of the North-East and North-Central zones.
“The merger of Obi and Kwankwaso will help massively in getting more votes in Nigeria than any other part because of their loyalty and dedication to citizens,” Muhammad added.
The North-West, which has the highest number of registered voters in the country, is expected to remain a major battleground in the 2027 presidential election.
But a Kano-based activist, Mamman Buhari, dismissed both Atiku and Kwankwaso, saying neither of them was likely to emerge victorious.
Buhari accused Kwankwaso of putting personal ambition above wider political considerations by aligning with Obi.
“Kwankwaso has proved to be selfish, siding with Obi. Both Obi and Kwankwaso don’t respect the political awareness of the other, but selfishness has made them come together,” he said.
He also criticised Atiku’s continued presidential ambition, saying the former vice president had been in the race for too long.
“And Atiku should let us be; he has been contesting for a very long time,” Buhari added.