The oil market was mixed on Friday as traders weighed supply disruptions against the potential restart of peace talks between the US and Iran that could help limit those shortfalls.
Brent crude futures settled at $105.33 a barrel after rising by 26 cents or 0.3 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $94.40 a barrel after falling by $1.45 or 1.5 per cent. For the week, Brent gained about 16 per cent and WTI rose nearly 13 per cent.
Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the U.S. after talks collapsed earlier this week.
Also, CNN reported that US President Donald Trump was sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran’s foreign minister.
The American President also told Reuters on Friday that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying US demands. On Thursday, he said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry “a little bit” during a two-week ceasefire, but added that the US military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks.
Meanwhile, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about a fifth of global oil output, remains effectively blocked.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two container ships – MSC Francesca and Epaminondas – following the US’ seizure of the Iranian cargo ship Touska, putting a drastic halt to attempts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by non-oil tankers.
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol, said that the Iran war has permanently changed the fossil fuel industry, adding that the damage to confidence in fossil fuel security is permanent, and that countries exposed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption will rethink how much geopolitical risk they are willing to embed in their energy systems.
Analysts from JPMorgan argued that prices may need to rise further to force additional demand destruction. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil production is down 57 per cent from pre-war levels, which are shortage signals, not evidence of a fossil fuel system in retreat.