Beyond primary elections: Hurdles before Ondo governorship flagbearers

• Presidency, Aggrieved Aspirants Plan For, Against Candidates
• PDP Stands Better Chance To Oust APC, Says Olafeso
• Aiyedatiwa Is Already A Step Ahead Of Ajayi – Ekungba

The stage is now set for the November 16, 2024, governorship poll in Ondo State as the primary elections have ended, with two former deputies to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, and others emerging candidates.

 
In the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship primary election held on Monday, April 22, 2024, the incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa emerged as the party’s candidate, defeating his opponents with 48,569 votes to pick the   ticket. In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primary, Agboola Ajayi, emerged the candidate of the party. He defeated six other contestants with 264 votes.
 
Ajayi served as deputy to Akeredolu from 2016 to 2020 but didn’t return with the governor for a second term due to a move to get him impeached a few months into the Ondo 2020 governorship race. Ajayi was forced to part ways with the late Akeredolu in 2020 when he defected from APC to PDP and later the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in pursuit of his governorship ambition. He contested on the ZLP platform against Akeredolu in 2020 and lost to the erstwhile President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA).
 
Akeredolu, who at that time had replaced Ajayi with Aiyedatiwa, won the 2020 polls with 292,830 votes while the then candidate of PDP, Eyitayo Jegede polled 195,791 votes to come second and Ajayi of ZLP scored 69,127 votes to get the third position.
 
Aiyedatiwa, on his part, did not only survive the impeachment plot to remove him, a conspiracy that lasted throughout last year until when Akeredolu eventually passed on in December, his foes could not also push him out of the APC like they did to Ajayi four years ago.
 
The duo are coming from the same background, with similar experience, into the November gubernatorial race but the dynamics that will work for or against  each person are going to be different.
 
There are allegations that the opponents of Aiyedatiwa in the APC primary are planning another onslaught against him ahead of November 16.  They may move to other platforms to support Ajayi or seek for where to realise their gubernatorial ambition.
   
One of the major grouses against Aiyedatiwa is that he was allegedly picked by Akeredolu in the aftermath of Ajayi’s defection to PDP in 2020 to reap the ‘utmost benefits’ of what he didn’t labour for.  This is unacceptable to those who considered themselves as having laboured vigorously to build the party along with Akeredolu, and therefore felt that they deserved to benefit from the fruits of their labour in the party.

There are possibilities of alignment and realignment of forces among the aggrieved APC members against the governor, following the refusal of the aggrieved aspirants to reconcile with him and or accept Aiyedatiwa’s victory in the primary election.

 
The attempt by the National Chairman of the APC, Alhaji Umar Ganduje, to intervene by pleading with the aggrieved contestants to forge a common front also ended in a stalemate. It was also said that effort by the Ondo State chairman of the party, Ade Adetimehin, to appeal to one of the governorship aspirants, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, ended in a fierce exchange of words, when the lawmaker furiously rebuffed Adetimihin’s plea for peace.
 
The allegation is that the APC primary election was tailored to favour Aiyedatiwa by the Presidency and the National Working Committee (NWC), similar to what happened in Lagos in 2018 when the leadership of the party, then under the control of now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, used the controversial direct primary to remove former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode to give the party’s ticket to now Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.It was also insinuated that the incumbent Governor of Kogi State, UsmanOdodo, was used to ‘stampede’ other aspirants in favour of Aiyedatiwa.
 
How Tinubu wants to use Aiyedatiwa to reclaim Ondo political structure
It is a known fact that President Tinubu and the Southwest political apparatchiks have been eyeing the political structure of Ondo State since 2008 when he was the Southwest leader of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), now APC. He was said to have mobilised all his political machinery and forces to ensure that former Governor Segun Mimiko regain Ondo State from the late Governor Olusegun Agagu of the PDP through the Appeal Court.
 
The pact was that Mimiko, who contested under the Labour Party (LP), would thereafter defect to ACN, but the former governor allegedly did not honour the agreement with Tinubu. Four years later, Mimiko finally parted ways with Tinubu, forcing the President to support the late Akeredolu to contest the 2012 governorship poll in Ondo with the Iroko, but Akeredolu lost to Mimiko. Tinubu was again kept out of Ondo politics from 2012 to 2016.
 
Unfortunately, Tinubu and Akeredolu had also fallen out in 2016. The deceased former governor who wanted to govern Ondo didn’t get the support of Tinubu but had to align with the alleged Abuja cabal under former President Muhammadu Buhari to get his ambition realised. Tinubu then supported Segun Abraham, one of his political protégées.
 
Soon after Akeredolu won the governorship election in 2016, he introduced the Aketi platform, with which he had a strong foothold of Ondo politics and thereby kept Tinubu out of the state’s politics for another four years.
Four years later, when Akeredolu sought re-election in 2020, Tinubu’s interest was neither here nor there in Ondo politics. Tinubu refused to commit the same error he made in 2016, when he bluntly told the former NBA president that he (Tinubu) would not support him, which propelled Akeredolu to seek support from Abuja.

Even in 2020, Akeredolu had fallen apart with the Presidency under former President Buhari over the excesses and menace of the armed Fulani herdsmen in Yoruba land, which the former governor resisted. Ironically also, the Buhari administration was not also favourably disposed to Tinubu in the 2020 gubernatorial election in Ondo. The stage was, therefore, left open for Akeredolu and Aketi platform who eventually won his re-election despite his issues with Ajayi, the face-off he had with the Presidency and the cold relationship between him and Tinubu.
 
From 2020, the President was again kept out of Ondo politics until the death of Akeredolu late last year. In the preparations for the 2023 general election, Akeredolu allegedly supported the presidential ambition of former Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo against Tinubu who had also shown interest to contest. Reports had it that majority of the gubernatorial aspirants stood with their late boss against Tinubu’s presidential aspiration except Aiyedatiwa, whose ordeal under Akeredolu was gradually building up then.
 
Although President Tinubu eventually won the APC presidential primary ticket and proceeded to win the February 25 2023 general poll, a sore relationship between him and those who openly or subtly opposed his lifetime ambition had been established.
 
When the plot to impeach Aiyedatiwa started while Akeredolu was abroad for medical treatment, it was said that the Presidency revisited it. When the forces in the state were foot-dragging to swear him in in acting capacity, the Presidency waded in and eventually saw him through to succeed his late boss.
 
It is, therefore, not an exaggeration to say that Aiyedatiwa, apart from having the sympathy of the people of Ondo during the period of his ordeal and the primary election, the Presidency’s influence must have also helped him a lot.

 
Between 1999 and 2008, Tinubu was also kept out of Ondo politics. When the crisis between Afenifere and Tinubu started before the 2003 general election, the late former Governor of Ondo, Adebayo Adefarati, sided with Afenifere. But with the new development, Aiyedatiwa appears to be the in-road through which Mr. President desires to get full control of the state’s politics. The only likely stumbling block is Ajayi of PDP. There are feelers that Mr. President and his team are already in talks with Aiyedatiwa on how to deploy the team that would work with the governor to win in November.
 
Factors that may favour, work against Aiyedatiwa, Ajayi
THERE is no doubt that the incumbent governor will benefit immensely from the power of incumbency, which will play out in November. Aiyedatiwa will also be disposed to more funds to prosecute the election than Ajayi of PDP. Between now and November, any of the aggrieved APC aspirants who may want to play funny by going to support Ajayi can be hounded by state forces.  The incumbent governor will also enjoy support from the central government, which appears to be much more interested in getting Ondo ahead of the 2027 general election.
 
Ajayi may hope to benefit from the internal crisis in the APC peradventure it festers till November. He is also likely to gain from the disenchantment of indigenes of Ondo with the ruling APC because of the present economic hardships. The slogan ‘change’ may work for him.
 
Former PDP national vice chairman, Southwest, Dr. Eddy Olafeso, said the party stood a better chance of ousting APC if only all the stakeholders join forces and work in unity to support Ajayi.  He urged the security agencies, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and other stakeholders to ensure a level playing field in the election, saying “with what is happening today, an average Nigerian would not want to vote for APC.”
 
Incumbent National Vice chairman, Southwest PDP, Kamorudeen Ajisafe, also expressed confidence that Ajayi would win. He said other aspirants had since expressed readiness to support him unlike the anger in the ruling APC.
 
According to Ajisafe, incumbent and or federal factors cannot work where the voters’ interest and desires are stronger. But an APC stakeholder in Ondo, Bola Ilori, said the last visit of President Tinubu to Ondo showed that APC is still very much popular and hopefully by the time Mr. President and his team would return to campaign for Aiyedatiwa, the acceptance and support would be higher. To him, PDP is not a threat at all to the ruling APC.
 
A member of APC Board of Trustees (BoT), Jamiu Ekungba, said Aiyedatiwa has turned the table to favour himself by quickly winning the love of students in all the tertiary institutions in Ondo.  He said the governor has also regained the confidence of traditional rulers across the state “just as the stakeholders in the three senatorial districts now consider him as a hero.”
 
“Whatever is the magic, Aiyedatiwa was able to survive the conspiracy of those who eventually pushed Ajayi out in 2020. It was the same forces that prevailed against Ajayi in 2020 that now failed against Aiyedatiwa in 2023/2024.
 
“It will take Ajayi a serious magic to revive the dying Ondo PDP to rally around him between now and November. The incumbent governor is already a step ahead of Ajayi. What Aiyedatiwa only needs now is to intensify his reconciliation efforts among fellow aspirants ahead of November,” Ekungba said.