The 2027 presidential election may still be months away, but the political atmosphere is already witnessing moves by parties and politicians to position themselves for what could become one of the country’s most looked-after elections.
For the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the task appears straightforward on paper. President Bola Tinubu is widely expected to seek a second term, and history has shown that incumbents in Nigeria often enjoy strong advantages at the polls. The APC also remains the party with the widest political structure across the country, controlling a large number of states and maintaining a strong presence in the National Assembly.
The opposition, however, believes the next election presents a genuine opportunity to wrest power from the APC. Many point to the economic challenges in the country, the rising cost of living, insecurity and growing public dissatisfaction as factors that could reshape voting patterns in 2027.
But there is one question that continues to dominate political discussions: Can the opposition truly defeat the APC if it remains divided?
That question has become even more important following the emergence of two major opposition camps. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is leading the African Democratic Congress (ADC) into the election after securing the party’s presidential ticket, while Peter Obi is flying the flag of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Despite now belonging to different political platforms and the deadline by the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for switching parties due, conversations about an opposition alliance have refused to die down. Among the many ideas being discussed, none has attracted more attention than the possibility of Peter Obi who has teamed up with former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso securing a victory.
Obi’s and Kwankwaso’s supporters believe that the alliance will unite millions of votes from different parts of the country. Others insist that politics is far more complicated than combining figures from previous elections, arguing that regional interests, party loyalties, personalities and campaign dynamics will ultimately determine the outcome.
Whether such an alliance eventually happens or remains political speculation, the discussions have highlighted one important fact: the opposition recognises that defeating the APC will require more than popularity. It will require strategy, unity, broad national appeal and careful political calculations.
To understand why an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has generated so much interest, it is necessary to first examine the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, the voting patterns across the country and the political developments that followed.
The 2023 presidential election was one of the most competitive in Nigeria’s democratic history. Unlike previous elections, where the contest was largely between the ruling APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the emergence of Obi as the Labour Party’s presidential candidate turned the race into a three-way battle, while Kwankwaso’s candidacy under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) added a fourth major force to the contest.
When INEC announced the final results, APC candidate Tinubu was declared the winner with 8,794,726 votes. PDP candidate Atiku came second with 6,984,520 votes, while Obi polled 6,101,533 votes to finish third. Kwankwaso secured 1,496,687 votes, with the overwhelming majority of his support coming from Kano State and parts of the North-West.
Although Tinubu won the election, the figures immediately led to debate among political observers. Many argued that the opposition’s inability to unite before the election worked in the APC’s favour. The combined votes of Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso were significantly higher than Tinubu’s total, fuelling claims that a single opposition candidate might have produced a different outcome.
However, many analysts cautioned against simply adding the figures together. Elections are not won by arithmetic alone. A merger of candidates does not automatically translate into a merger of supporters, as voting behaviour is influenced by party loyalty, regional interests, religion, ethnicity, campaign organisation, candidate acceptability and turnout.
The 2023 election also produced another major political reality. Obi demonstrated that a candidate outside the two dominant political parties could build a nationwide movement capable of challenging for power. His campaign attracted millions of first-time voters, young Nigerians and professionals, while also recording strong performances in states that had traditionally been regarded as APC or PDP strongholds.
Kwankwaso, on the other hand, once again proved the strength of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, particularly in Kano State. Despite contesting on the platform of the NNPP, he defeated both the APC and the PDP in Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populous states and one of the biggest prizes in any presidential election because of its large voting population.
The election also exposed weaknesses within the opposition. While Obi dominated in much of the South-East, won Lagos State and performed strongly in parts of the South-South and the Federal Capital Territory, Atiku remained strongest in parts of the North-East and North-Central. Kwankwaso’s influence was largely concentrated in Kano and surrounding areas.
Instead of complementing one another, the opposition candidates split votes in several states, allowing the APC to secure victories in key battlegrounds.
Following the election, conversations about opposition unity became louder than ever. Political leaders, civil society groups and many Nigerians argued that unless opposition parties found a way to work together, defeating an incumbent president backed by a nationwide political structure would remain extremely difficult.
Those discussions continued over the next few years as politicians explored different alliances ahead of 2027. They eventually resulted in a political arrangement that reshaped the opposition—though for a short time.
The arrangement brought together politicians from different parties and ideological backgrounds under the banner of the ADC.
For a moment, it appeared the opposition had finally found the unity many Nigerians had been calling for.
The outcome of the 2023 presidential election led to months of consultations among political leaders from different parties. Former Vice President Atiku, Obi, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, former Senate President David Mark, former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola and several others began holding meetings aimed at building a united opposition ahead of the 2027 election.
Those discussions culminated on July 2, 2025, when opposition leaders formally adopted the ADC as the coalition platform for the 2027 general election. As part of the arrangement, David Mark was unveiled as the party’s National Chairman, while Aregbesola became the National Secretary.
The announcement immediately generated excitement across Nigeria. For the first time since the coalition that gave birth to the APC in 2013, opposition politicians from different ideological and political backgrounds had agreed to rally around a single platform.
Speaking shortly after the adoption of the ADC, David Mark said the coalition was driven by the need to rescue the country and strengthen democracy.
“This coalition goes beyond gaining political power. It is about rebuilding the foundations of our democracy and giving Nigerians a government that truly works for them.”
Obi also defended his decision to join the coalition in a statement published on his X account on July 3, 2025. Explaining why he chose to work with politicians from different backgrounds, Obi said the country’s challenges demanded cooperation rather than division.
“No one group can change Nigeria alone. To dismantle the structures that keep our people in poverty and insecurity, we must build bridges, not walls, even when those bridges are uneasy.”
Obi added that the coalition members had reached a common understanding about their objective.
“Our commitment is to sacrifice and work together towards the 2027 General Elections, ensuring that Nigeria gets a competent, capable, and compassionate leadership that will prioritise the nation’s future by putting the welfare of Nigerians first.”