Blood and water cannot flow together. This statement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the Pahalgam terror attack has become the basis of India’s new approach towards water cooperation with Pakistan. For decades, the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty was considered one of the most stable agreements between the two countries. However, after the terror attack in April 2025, India decided to place the treaty “in abeyance”, meaning it suspended its implementation.

India has made it clear that normal cooperation on water issues will not continue until Pakistan takes strong action against cross-border terrorism. Since then, three major hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River, Baglihar, Salal and Dulhasti, have become the focus of strategic discussions.

The debate is no longer only about electricity generation. It is now also about how these projects could influence water management and regional strategy.

Why Is the Chenab River So Important?

Under the Indus Waters Treaty, six rivers were divided between India and Pakistan. India received control over the eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, while most of the water from the western rivers,Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, was allocated to Pakistan.

However, the treaty allowed India to build run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers without significantly blocking their natural flow. India has built several such projects on the Chenab River, which have now become strategically important.

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Baglihar Dam: A Key Project on the Chenab

The 900 MW Baglihar Hydroelectric Project, located in Ramban district of Jammu and Kashmir, is one of India’s most important projects on the Chenab River.

Its special feature is the presence of flushing gates, which allow India to manage water flow and remove accumulated silt.

In May 2025, after India changed the operation of the dam, reports said water reaching Pakistan’s Marala Headworks fell sharply. According to reports, the flow dropped from around 35,000 cusecs to nearly 3,100 cusecs, drawing significant attention in Pakistan.

Salal Dam and Its Strategic Importance

The 690 MW Salal Hydroelectric Project, located in Reasi district, is another major project on the Chenab River.

Because of its location near the Pakistan border, experts consider it strategically important.

If India changes the timing of water releases or carries out silt flushing, downstream water levels in Pakistan could change suddenly. This gives India greater flexibility in managing water flow within the limits of its infrastructure and treaty obligations.

Dulhasti Project and the New Expansion Plan

The 390 MW Dulhasti Hydroelectric Project, located in Kishtwar district, is already operational.

India has now approved Dulhasti Stage-II, which includes new tunnels, an underground powerhouse and improved water management systems.

Experts believe these upgrades will improve India’s ability to regulate the timing of water releases, although they do not allow India to permanently stop the river’s flow.

Why Is Pakistan Concerned?

One of Pakistan’s biggest challenges is its limited water storage infrastructure along the Chenab River. After flowing through India, the river enters Pakistan’s agricultural region. However, Pakistan does not have a large storage system on the Chenab that can easily handle sudden increases or decreases in water flow.

While large dams such as Tarbela and Mangla are located on the Indus and Jhelum river systems, similar storage capacity is not available on the Chenab. This makes Pakistan more vulnerable to changes in river flow.

Why Has the Suspension of Data Sharing Increased Concerns?

The Indus Waters Treaty covered not only water sharing but also the exchange of hydrological data, including river flow, rainfall and flood information.

After suspending the treaty, India also stopped regularly sharing this data with Pakistan.

As a result, Pakistan no longer receives advance information about dam operations, silt flushing or changes in water releases.

Reports say that in June 2026, a sudden increase in water flow caught Pakistani authorities off guard, raising flood concerns. Some Pakistani leaders described the situation as “water terrorism.”

Impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture

Pakistan’s Punjab province is the country’s agricultural heartland. Cities such as Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan depend heavily on the Chenab River and its canal network. A reduction in water flow can affect irrigation, while sudden increases can damage crops and canal systems. Both situations create challenges for Pakistan’s farming sector.

Meanwhile, cities such as Karachi already face serious water shortages, with many residents relying on water tankers.

India’s Strategic Advantage

India’s biggest advantage lies in geography. The Chenab flows through Dulhasti in Kishtwar, then Baglihar in Ramban, and finally Salal in Reasi before entering Pakistan. Because these projects are located upstream within Indian territory, India has greater control over how water is managed before it crosses the border.

However, experts say India still does not have enough storage capacity to permanently stop the flow of large rivers like the Chenab or the Indus. Instead, the existing projects mainly allow India better to manage the timing and regulation of water releases.

Pakistan’s International Response

Following India’s decision, Pakistan approached international forums, including the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), raising objections to India’s hydroelectric projects. India, however, has maintained that while the treaty remains in abeyance and cross-border terrorism continues, it will not accept third-party mediation.

India has repeatedly said that national security comes first, and that terrorism and normal cooperation cannot continue together.

What Could Happen Next?

India is expanding its hydroelectric infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir by developing new tunnels, increasing power generation capacity and improving water storage systems to make better use of its allocated share of river water. At the same time, Pakistan continues to raise the issue on international platforms, with several leaders describing water security as a matter of national importance.

As a result, along with terrorism, water diplomacy is expected to become one of the most important strategic issues in India-Pakistan relations in the coming years.