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Dangote refinery eyes historic $2bn stock market debut

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned public listing has generated strong investor interest ahead of its expected Initial Public Offering (IPO), with a Bloomberg report indicating the offer could raise as much as $2 billion and become the largest stock market listing in Africa’s history.

The report, published on Thursday, said the IPO, expected in September 2026, has already attracted significant interest from institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals and first-time retail investors seeking a stake in one of Africa’s largest industrial projects.

According to Bloomberg, institutional investors have expressed interest worth nearly $2 billion even before the formal launch of the offer, reflecting growing confidence in both the refinery and Nigeria’s capital market.

The planned offering is expected to value the refinery at about $40 billion, although some analysts estimate its market value could reach $50 billion.

Bloomberg described the IPO as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity that will test the depth of African capital markets due to its scale and expected investor participation.

Under the proposal, Dangote Petroleum Refinery plans to sell about 10 per cent of its equity through a listing expected to span multiple African stock exchanges, including the Nigerian Exchange Limited.

Owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, the refinery has become a major player in Nigeria’s energy sector since commencing operations. Located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, the facility has reportedly increased production to about 700,000 barrels of crude per day, making it one of the world’s largest single-train refineries.

Its operations have significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products and helped position the country as a net exporter of refined fuel to regional markets.

Despite the strong demand, the Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly suspended marketing activities related to the IPO in June following concerns over aggressive promotional campaigns.

However, investor appetite has remained strong, with institutional investors continuing to position themselves ahead of the listing.

The refinery had earlier tested market interest through a private placement. Speaking during an interview on Arise Television in May, Dangote disclosed that the company received about $2 billion in subscriptions after seeking to raise only $1 billion.

A prospectus cited by Bloomberg showed the company targeted a valuation of $39.1 billion during the private placement.

Responding to Bloomberg, the company confirmed strong interest from investors.

“We have successfully completed a number of domestic and international company introduction and market-sounding activities and have been encouraged by the level of interest received from both local and international investors,” it said.

The company, however, noted that discussions on the final size, timing and structure of the IPO were still ongoing.

The report noted that the listing could mark a major milestone for African capital markets while benefiting from improving investor sentiment in Nigeria, where the benchmark stock index has recorded one of the world’s strongest performances this year.

According to Bloomberg, Dangote Refinery also posted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of about 23 per cent last year, placing it among the world’s most profitable refining operations.

The report added that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had also boosted earnings across the Dangote Group’s refinery, fertiliser and petrochemical businesses.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, welcomed the planned listing, saying broad public participation would promote wealth creation and deepen the country’s investment culture.

“We can see the excitement already about the IPO, not only in Nigeria, but beyond Nigeria,” Oyedele said.

He added that wider retail participation would increase household wealth and disposable income over time.

The Dangote Refinery, which began production in 2024, was built to address Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported refined petroleum products despite its vast crude oil reserves.

The planned IPO is expected to provide investors with a rare opportunity to own a stake in one of Africa’s biggest industrial ventures while setting a new benchmark for capital raising on the continent.