The National Democratic Congress, NDC, is positioned to take political advantage of the crisis trailing the primaries of the All Progressives Congress, APC, especially in Bayelsa State, home of its national leader, Senator Seriake Dickson.
This was disclosed in a statement on Thursday by National Coordinator of the Sagbama/Ekeremor Grassroots Agenda, Comrade Felix Osuobene.
Osuobene revealed that Dickson was spotted celebrating the fallout of the Bayelsa APC primaries in Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency where Bernard Kenibai emerged as the party’s candidate.
The statement noted that crisis trailing the APC primaries across the country, involving disputes over the screening exercise, disqualification of aspirants and internal tensions, has generated national attention.
Osuobene said opposition strategists are increasingly convinced that the ruling party’s internal crisis has handed them a valuable political opening ahead of the 2027 general elections.
According to him, the calculation among opposition elements in Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency of Bayelsa State is that the APC has weakened itself in a constituency it cannot afford to lose.
“Our sources confirmed that the national leader of NDC, Senator Seriake Dickson was seen celebrating the emergence of Hon. Bernard Kenibai as the APC candidate; viewed in political circles as an easier adversary,” Osuobene stated.
The controversy centres on the exclusion of Prof. Princewill Woyinbrakemi Igbagara, an academic and technocrat who is said to have built considerable grassroots and elite support and was regarded as the frontrunner.
Osuobene described the exclusion as a costly miscalculation by the APC, particularly given President Bola Tinubu’s standing directive that the party present its strongest candidates at every level in 2027.
The opposition, according to Osuobene, believe the NDC now has three pathways to exploit the crisis.
He stated, “The first is voter apathy. If aggrieved APC stakeholders feel sufficiently marginalized, many may simply refuse to mobilize for the party come election day — a potentially devastating outcome in a contest where presidential victories are built on the loyalty of local structures and grassroots foot soldiers.
“The second pathway is silent defection. Nigeria’s political history is littered with cases of discontented party loyalists who remain publicly committed to their party while quietly delivering votes to the opposition. The NDC is well positioned to attract frustrated political actors from within the APC who are searching for an alternative platform.
“The third and perhaps most immediate advantage is propaganda. Opposition parties thrive politically when the ruling party appears divided.
“For a party like the NDC — which is actively marketing itself as a cleaner, fairer political alternative — the spectacle of APC tearing itself apart in Sagbama/Ekeremor is ready-made campaign material.
“The stakes are particularly high in the South-South, where the APC has historically struggled to build a durable, unified structure. In Bayelsa State especially, the optics of excluding a well-regarded constituency son from a primary race risk reinforcing longstanding perceptions that the party is neither inclusive nor internally democratic — perceptions the NDC is eager to deepen.
“Even if the APC leadership believes it acted within party guidelines, the emotional reaction of supporters on the ground may produce unintended political consequences.
“In regions where the APC seeks to expand its influence, particularly the South-South, controversies that alienate local stakeholders could become valuable political capital for opposition movements like the NDC.”
Osuobene observed that ahead of the general elections, the NDC appears determined to ensure that every crack in the APC’s armour, no matter how little, is widened into a national conversation about the ruling party’s fitness to govern.