The oil market was down $100 per barrel on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures lost $14.51 or 13.3 per cent to sell for $94.76 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by $17.16 or 15.2 per cent to $95.79 a barrel.
WTI has maintained its price premium over Brent in a reversal of typical price patterns due to its delivery contract being for May while Brent is for June, reflecting that barrels with an earlier delivery date are commanding a higher price.
President Trump’s turnaround came shortly before his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil transits, or face widespread attacks on its civilian infrastructure.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” he wrote on social media, after posting earlier on Tuesday that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if his demands were not met.
President Trump indicated that negotiations may be progressing toward a more durable agreement, citing a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis” for long-term peace.
Iran said it would halt its attacks if attacks against it stopped and that safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
The single most important factor to watch will be how many tankers cross the Strait of Hormuz with this new agreement in place. Already, another tanker operated by Malaysia’s Petronas and carrying Iraqi crude was allowed passage in the latest sign of a modest restoration of oil flows via the chokepoint.
Earlier in the week, two tankers carrying LPG for India were also allowed to pass the strait after Iran began making individual passage deals with foreign governments. The past few days have also seen three Oman-operated vessels clear the chokepoint, as well as a French container ship and a Japanese gas carrier. China, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan are also among the countries that Iran is allowing to send ships via the waterway.
The US-Israeli war with Iran saw the steepest monthly oil price rise in history in March of more than 50 per cent.