The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has agreed to begin a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels per day from April, just as the US-Israel war on Iran disrupted flows from key members of the group in the Middle East.
In a virtual meeting on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reviewed global supply and demand conditions before deciding to start unwinding part of their additional voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023.
The countries agreed on a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day for April 2026, marking the first step in easing a 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary reduction introduced nearly three years ago.
In a statement issued after the talks, the group said low oil inventories and stable economic prospects justified a cautious return of supply to the market.
The 1.65 million barrels per day cut, announced in April 2023, was introduced alongside a separate 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary reduction unveiled in November 2023 as part of broader efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to stabilise prices amid economic uncertainty and fluctuating demand.
The eight producers stressed that the 1.65 million barrels per day could be restored “in part or in full” depending on evolving market conditions, and reiterated their readiness to pause or reverse the unwinding if necessary.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions,” the statement said, adding that flexibility would remain central to the group’s strategy.
The move signals confidence among the core OPEC+ members that supply constraints have successfully supported prices while preventing excessive stockpiling. Analysts note that Brent crude prices have remained relatively firm in recent months, supported by disciplined output management and resilient Asian demand.
However, the producers underscored that the adjustment does not mark a full return to pre-cut production levels. They reaffirmed their commitment to the 2022 Declaration of Cooperation, the framework binding OPEC members and non-OPEC allies such as Russia, and said compliance would continue to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
The group also confirmed that countries which have overproduced since January 2024 would fully compensate for excess output. Compensation plans are expected to be reviewed monthly.
OPEC+, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global crude supply, has repeatedly adjusted output since the Covid-19 pandemic in response to demand shocks, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.
The eight countries will hold monthly meetings to assess market developments, conformity and compensation levels, with their next gathering scheduled for April 5, 2026.
Meanwhile, oil, gas and other shipments from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz have come to a halt since Saturday after shipowners received a warning from Iran saying the area was closed for navigation.